Chiefs at Broncos
When: 2:25 p.m.
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: CBS
Radio: 850 AM, 94.1 FM
Series: While players and coaches won’t call the Chiefs-Broncos matchup a rivalry, the two AFC West teams have become the division’s pillars in recent years. Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the matchup over the past several seasons, but the Broncos have won three of the last four contests. The most recent meeting went to the Chiefs in a decisive 31-10 win, so Denver will likely need a victory to stay in the divisional race. If Denver wins Sunday, the Broncos’ odds of winning the AFC West jump to 49%. If they lose, those odds fall to 14%, according to the New York Times simulator.
In the spotlight: Can Kenneth Walker deliver another ginormous game?
Broncos players stood in stunned silence in the cramped visiting locker room at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City — and its prized new running back, Kenneth Walker — had just run all over them in a blowout victory.
The stats were staggering: Denver missed 28 tackles, including eight defenders who failed to bring down a runner multiple times. The Broncos’ 29.8% missed-tackle rate was the third-worst in an NFL game since 2018, while their 247 missed tackle yards allowed were the most by any defense in that same span. Walker’s 144 rushing yards after contact that night ranked ninth among 5,386 running backs since 2022.
When he heard those stats that night, safety Talanoa Hufanga could only say, “Wow.” Justin Strnad called Walker the “best pure runner” in the NFL. He might not be wrong.
Walker has posted multiple games with 20-plus-yard runs, four multi-touchdown performances, and four games with at least 135 all-purpose yards. He’s recorded 817 yards from scrimmage and is on pace to shatter career-best marks in virtually every statistical category. He’s been a perfect blend of consistent down-to-down running and the threat of breaking a big play at any moment.
He broke off multiple explosive runs in the season opener, including a 60-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1. Nobody in the Broncos’ locker room seems to have forgotten.
“He embarrassed us last time,” outside linebacker Nik Bonitto said.
“That game wasn’t close to our standard,” Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said. “It was embarrassing how we played. It’s tough to watch, but you have to go back and watch it to fix the things that happened in that game.”
Fixing it does not mean completely stopping Walker. Joseph acknowledged that the running back will make defenders miss, but Denver’s focus is preventing him from breaking off explosive plays. If the Broncos can contain him, they should have a better chance of slowing a Chiefs offense that relied heavily on its running game in the initial matchup.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: Denver might have a new starting running back by kickoff Sunday. Rookie Jonah Coleman led the Broncos’ backfield in the second half of their win over the Arizona Cardinals, and with RJ Harvey out with a knee injury for Sunday’s game, the fourth-round pick might shoulder an even heavier load. J.K. Dobbins insisted Thursday that the rookie isn’t passing him on the depth chart; rather, Denver’s coaching staff is trying to keep him healthy.
“It’s a long season and I’m feeling great,” Dobbins said Thursday. “The coaches are doing everything to keep me healthy. And when I’m healthy, I think I’m dangerous.”
Regardless, the Broncos might struggle to run the football against the Chiefs, who allow an average of 99.5 rushing yards per game and four rushing touchdowns. Edge: Chiefs
When Broncos pass: Playing against Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses “chokes” a quarterback’s processing speed, ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky told The Denver Post. The Chiefs’ defense uses simulated pressures, bringing defenders who don’t initially appear to be blitzing while dropping others into passing lanes. That makes it difficult for quarterbacks to anticipate which throws will be available, so Luke Wattenberg and Bo Nix will have to be on point before the snap when setting pass protection. If they do, they should give Nix time.
The Chiefs blitz just 28.9% of the time, the 12th-lowest rate in the league. Their pressure rate ranks 19th, and they have sacked opposing quarterbacks just eight times this season. Edge: Chiefs
When Chiefs run: It feels strange to say, but an offense with a healthy Mahomes is being driven by its running game. The Chiefs’ signing of Walker has paid massive dividends, as he’s been one of the top running backs in football this season. Kansas City leads the NFL in rushing yards per play, ranks second in expected points added per rush and is third in rushing yards after contact. Walker can break a big run at almost any point. He’s accumulated 19 runs of 10 or more yards, the third-most in the league behind James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs.
If Denver can’t wrap up again, its defense could be in for a long night. If the Broncos can replicate the Seattle Seahawks’ performance against Walker (14 carries for 36 yards), Kansas City becomes much less potent. Slight edge: Chiefs
When Chiefs pass: It is jarring to scroll down the NFL’s passing charts and see Mahomes pop up in the middle of the pack. But that’s exactly where the Chiefs quarterback’s numbers stand this year. He’s 14th in passer rating, 11th in expected points added and 18th in passing yards. He still has all the talent that made him a former MVP. Some of the issues fall on his supporting cast. Kansas City has 10 drops this year, Rashee Rice is questionable this week with a hamstring injury, and Xavier Worthy hasn’t lived up to his pedigree as a first-round pick.
Travis Kelce does not expect a repeat performance, though.
“I’ll be damned if we go out there and have another [expletive] showing like that again. I can promise you that,” Kelce said on his New Heights podcast. Edge: Broncos
Special teams: The Chiefs signed kicker Justin Tucker to their practice squad this weekend, pairing him with Harrison Butker. Don’t expect Tucker to play, but Butker could be on his way out the door if he misses a crucial kick at Empower Field. He missed two field-goal attempts last week and is just 11 of 16 for the year. His 68.8% conversion rate is by far the worst of his career.
Meanwhile, Denver’s Wil Lutz made all of his field goal attempts last week, and Jeremy Crawshaw has been a weapon in the punting game. Edge: Broncos
Coaching: The prominent question before the season opener was how Davis Webb would fare in his first game as offensive coordinator. The answer was a resounding dud: Webb was demoted from play-calling duties a few weeks into the season. The rematch will be a classic Sean Payton vs. Andy Reid matchup, one both fan bases have seen many times. Not much has changed on Kansas City’s coaching staff, as Payton pointed out, so this game will come down to whether the Broncos’ staff can adjust after the Week 1 disaster. Slight edge: Kansas City
Tale of the tape
| Stat | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 270 (30th) | 380.5 (5th) |
| Rush offense | 94.9 (24th) | 141.5 (5th) |
| Pass offense | 175.1 (27th) | 239 (11th) |
| Points per game | 20.6 (25th) | 23.8 (14th) |
| Total defense | 349 (22nd) | 323.3 (14th) |
| Run defense | 133.3 (28th) | 99.5 (13th) |
| Pass defense | 215.7 (12th) | 223.8 (17th) |
| Points allowed | 20.1 (7th) | 17.2 (2nd) |
By the numbers
14%. The Broncos’ chances of winning the AFC West if they lose.
52.33. Opposing lead backs rushing yards per game over the Broncos’ past three contests.
41.3%. Nix’s completion percentage against man coverage this season, the lowest by a quarterback in a season since at least 2018.
3.17. Seconds to throw against the Seahawks in Week 7, his longest this season.
X-factors
Chiefs: Nohl Williams
Rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane picked off Nix on the Broncos’ first drive of the season but missed most of the first game after aggravating a shoulder injury. The first-round pick seems unlikely to play in the rematch, too, as Delane missed practice Friday with a shoulder injury.
“We’ll just see where he’s at,” Reid said Friday.
In his place, Nohl Williams could step into the CB1 role. Williams has allowed a 37.9% completion rate in coverage this season, the second-lowest among outside cornerbacks with at least 15 targets, trailing only former Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (28.6%).
NOHL WILLIAMS END ZONE INT AND A BIG RETURN
KCvsSEA on NBC/Peacock
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/K42foMAhQy— NFL (@NFL) October 26, 2026
Broncos: Alex Singleton
Singleton drew the ire of Broncos fans after missing five tackles in the season opener. To top it off, he received an unnecessary roughness penalty in the fourth quarter after a late hit on Chiefs rookie running back Emmett Johnson. It was a disastrous game for the Broncos’ defense, particularly Singleton, who recorded 15 tackles. But that high total largely reflected Denver’s defense scrambling to make plays.
“Having 15 against the Chiefs in Week 1 obviously wasn’t great,” he said. “It was making up for bad plays and just running to the ball.”
Luckily for Denver, Singleton has been playing much better football recently. The 32-year-old racked up 19 tackles and recorded a key fourth-quarter goal-line sack against the Cardinals. It was his third-highest tackle total of the season and the most by a Broncos defender since Singleton recorded 20 and 21 tackles in two games in 2022. Singleton also leads the NFL with 43 solo tackles.
“It’s fun to see him get recognized for being a big-time player because, to me, he’s been a special player for four years now,” Joseph said.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Chiefs 21, Broncos 20
There is… not a ton of conviction in this pick. Feels like a true toss-up and we’ve seen the way Sean Payton’s team has played at home, in close games and particularly both. A Denver win would throw the AFC West race wide open and make for much more compelling stuff overall. But Kansas City’s run game, Patrick Mahomes’ return to form and Denver’s offensive struggles all stand in the way.
Sam Jane, Broncos writer: Broncos 21, Chiefs 20
Both teams are banged up. Both teams need this game to win the AFC West and playoff positioning. But one team is coming off arguably its best win of the year, while the other arrives in Denver on the heels of its only loss of the season. Denver’s far from perfect, but it’s a winning group, and as Pat Surtain hinted in an interview with The Denver Post, the Broncos are eager to redeem themselves from the Week 1 drubbing.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 22, Chiefs 19
Urgency and embarrassment offer double-barreled motivation for the Broncos. They are not winning the AFC West — their first goal every season — without winning this game. The Chiefs blasted them in the opener. The Broncos will tackle better against Kenneth Walker. But he will get his yards. The Broncos are not the Seahawks. The key is slowing Walker enough to make Patrick Mahomes throw in the face of pressure, leading to one huge turnover in a close victory.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 20, Chiefs 18
Did Seattle light the way … or whack the hornet’s nest? Kenneth Walker III and the Chiefs offensive line remain a matchup problem for a Broncos defense that’s improved in the tackling department but still has Week 1 flashbacks on the ground. In a coin-toss of a heavyweight clash, this is still Sean Payton in October. And it’s still Bo Nix at Empower Field. And with Justin Tucker officially joining Harrison Butker in Andy Reid’s special-teams room, the Chieftains keep giving America reasons to boo.
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